Over, and Over Again

The morning line for Super Bowl XLV is Green Bay -2, O/U 44.5.

One of the reasons I don’t gamble any more is because I was great at talking myself into taking Green Bay -2, and just as persuasive making a case for Pittsburgh +2. In the end I listened to both of them but couldn’t hear either.  I was Billy Hoyle, and the truth was Jimi Hendrix.

The truth was if you can make a case for both team, it is probably a good sign you shouldn’t risk money on either.

That is why I would only take the over. I can’t think of one reasonable argument to justify betting the under.

I understand that both teams have great defenses.  But their defensive coordinators, Dom Capers and Dick Lebeau, worked together under Bill Cowher. Together they created the zone blitzing schemes both teams use. So if anyone should know how to beat a defense it’s the guys who created it, right?

Green Bay is faster than Pittsburgh on both sides of the ball and will get points on the board.

Pittsburgh is too good, and too crafty not stay in the game. Which means they will find a way to manufacture points.

Factor in the likely hood of a defensive touchdown, and you are looking at a game similar to the last time these teams met in 2009.

There were 73 points in that game.

Take the over. And if you’re dead set on making another bet. Take it again.

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