I love horseracing. If I could, I would sit at the track all day, smoking cigars and wearing those stupid hipster hats that are actually appropriate while tossing shredded betting slips to the floor. Unfortunately I don’t know shit about it.
Instead of trying to regurgitate what I read other experts predicting, I decided to have my friend Jon give you some insight into this Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Jon is like the crazy, alternative uncle that you always wanted to invite you outside when he went to “check on the car” at family parties, who you go to concerts with, who always recommends cool books and music, and who has a father who roomed with the man credited with creating an actual rating system for race horces, and taught him the ins and outs of betting the ponies when he was a kid.
FWG Advisory: ***Reading the following may cause dizziness, nausea, and make you smarter all at the same time.***
Ok, so I’m writing this at 4am after Cinco de Mayo. Which is either a really good thing, or a really bad thing. Actually there is no way this can be bad… I can only lose a certain amount of money, and regardless of the outcome, I’ll be on the beach in the Cayman Islands on Saturday.
(ED Note: Screw yourself)
I’ve been preaching Uncle Mo since I tried to beat him last year when I was at Belmont for the Champaign. Then I tried again when I was at the Breeders Juvenile at Churchill Downs. I actually had an Uncle Mo. He was a musician and an all around badass, may he rest in peace. He was impressive to say the least. As was Uncle Mo the horse.
Here’s the thing though, I was raised my whole life to never bet the chalk. My first bet, my dad took me to my first race at Laurel when I was 6, was on ‘Frugal Doc’ a 99-1 shot. No joke. Look it up. Growing up I was obsessed with Dwight ‘Doc’ Gooden, and even named my cat ‘Doc’. My dad, much to my mother’s chagrin, gave me and my brother Webster, now an actual Doc, $2 per race, (side note: they also separated when I was 6).
Anyway I put $2 on Frugal Doc to Win. Except then my dad explained to me Win, Place, and Show. Not quite up to my current level of probability understanding, and many years away from my economics degree, my only thought was the more chances to win the better. So I changed my bet from win to show. Frugal Doc won going away and I was ecstatic. Then I saw the difference between the Win money and the Show money. I still have not forgiven my father.
Normally I’m a sucker for a good name like Uncle Mo. I can point to so many signs telling me to sublet my Lower East Side apartment while I risk next month’s rent on Uncle Mo. Worst comes to worst I can live with my girlfriend right?
No, I’m a mature individual now, and would only do that if I was getting 8-1. He’ll be 5-1 tops and probably 7-2.
Here’s my prediction: Uncle Mo runs an ok race, gets swallowed up by some closers (ED Note: a horse who charges late), maybe gets in a little trouble and finishes fourth. Skips the Preakness, and I get my 8-1 on him in the Belmont. I’ll take 5-1 at that point. You see, no matter the signs in the moment, you still have to think if there will be other moments down the line that may be more significant, like rooting for Uncle Mo when I’m actually with his brother, my dad. You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one.
Dialed in is chalk as well, or close to it. But I do like this horse. He’ll probably finish second. I’ve started meditating recently and I feel like I’m Dialed In. But no, too obvious. I won’t fall for it. I’ll try to save him for the Preakness. By then I will have come back from my two week vacation in the Caymans and Greece and I’ll really be Dialed In. Hopefully at 5-1. I don’t know why I like that number so much. Maybe because of The Doors song that my band Vinyette covers.
Archarcharch. I want to like this horse a lot, but he bounces every time he wins a race. I’ve started to focus on which horse will finish 2nd or 3rd. It’s so hard to pick the winner, but it’s not that hard to pick the loser right? Well he’s got improving figs, some good showings in stakes races including a win in the Arkansas Derby and only him, Uncle Mo and Dialed In have two graded stakes wins. This horse will be third, I can almost guarantee it. It’s like Obama’s guarantee that we got Bin Laden. Except I will show you proof.
Random thought: (ED note: Yea cause this has been so focused thus far) Shackleford scares me to death, mainly because of his name. He’s like Drosselmeyer in last year’s Belmont; stupid weird name that doesn’t make sense. I knew that prick was going to upset my pick for the derby Ice Box (who still should’ve won both).
There were five minutes after last year’s Derby where there was a chance of me hitting the $200,000 Superfecta. I had the first 3 horses and hadn’t seen who the official 4th place finisher was. All I knew was that I had the horse that was leading the entire race as my 4th place horse. I still won’t say his name, much like the guy who shot Lennon.
The horse that actually finished fourth was named ‘Make Music for Me’. I get it. I still have that ticket on my refrigerator to remind me of several different things.
(ED Note: I was with Jon when this happened, and can vouch that it is true. He had ¾ and NBC didn’t show the official results for a few minutes.)
Also along the lines of weird names, Nehro scares me a bit. The extra 1/8 of a mile may serve him well and if he gets a clean trip he may run the race of his life. A breakthrough in this race and he will be on his way. He’s definitely poised to run around a 105 Beyer which should win the race (another side note: my dad was roommates with the horse racing guru Andy Beyer, so even though he sold his formula for multi-millions and it’s now called something else, I will always refer to it as a Beyer speed figure).
Now to the moment all three of you have been waiting for.
I’m going with Santiva. Not sure what the name means and how it relates to my life, but this horse is a beast. Broke his maiden on this track, much like I’m breaking mine with this article. Had a bad trip last time out over the poly, (ED Note: Poly refers to a new form of synthetic track) which is a total toss out race in my opinion.
While my dad hates all the breaks Santiva has taken from racing, I actually love it. Shows that this horse likes to enjoy life. It’s not all about racing. It’s about eating grass, hay, and salt. Plus you give me the same jockey who rode him for the last race he won, on the same track? Unless all you bastards ruin it for me I should get at least 20-1 odds.
You get yours baby, and I’ll get mine.
Superfecta Selection: 12-8-1-18 (Santiva, Dialed In, Archarcharch, Uncle Mo)
—-Jonathan Crowley
Final Editor Note:
As stated earlier this was sent at 4am and since then Uncle Mo has been scratched. Perhaps he really is waiting for Jon and his father (human Uncle Mo’s brother) to see him run in the Belmont.
Betting on horses is like Jazz. It’s not a science. It’s a living, breathing, organic entity. Even the professionals will tell you that sometimes you can do everything right and it still turns to shit. Then there are other times, when you close your eyes, let yourself go, improvise on the fly, and create something truly special.
It is in that spirit that I offer you my half assed prediction for that fourth horse to complete Jon’s Superfecta.
3 – Twice the Appeal. ‘Twice’ and ‘Appeal’ both refer to getting a second chance to make the right decision. Uncle Mo getting scratched provided a second chance to pick a fourth horse. Add in the sex appeal of Calvin Borel, who has ridden three horses to victory, and I’m sold.
Good Luck Everyone!
Leave a comment